Managed Care Analytics: Cost, Utilization & Care Management Targeting

Quick Scan

Domain
Managed care / healthcare pay analytics (simulated data)

Primary Question
How can enrollment, claims, and utilization data be structured to support cost monitoring, risk stratification, and care management prioritization in a managed care setting?

Status
In progress

What This Project Demonstrates
Member-month data modeling • Exposure-adjusted PMPM metrics • ED utilization analysis • Rule-based risk stratification for care management targeting

Tools
SQL Server (T-SQL) • Relational database design • Power BI

Transferable Insight
The member-month spine, cost and utilization logic, and risk stratification framework mirror analytical patterns used in healthcare payers to support transparent decision-making, operational reporting, and care management workflows across regulated, data-sensitive environments.

This project demonstrates how structured data analysis can support cost monitoring, utilization management, and care management prioritization in a managed care setting. Using fully simulated data and documented SQL workflows, the analysis links enrollment to medical claims, and utilization data to identify high-priority members for intervention and leadership review.

Context & Motivation

Managed care organizations must balance cost control, quality performance, and member access while operating within highly regulated environments. Data used for these purposes must be accurate, transparent, and interpretable by both technical and non-technical stakeholders.

This project was designed to reflect real-world payer analytics questions, including how exposure-adjusted metrics and clear business rules can support care management decision-making without relying on black-box models.

Key Evaluation Questions

1

Which members account for a disproportionate share of medical spending?

2

How does cost and utilization vary across service areas and plan types?

3

Which members show high emergency department utilization?

4

Which members exhibit rising cost trends over time?

5

How can these signals be combined to prioritize care management outreach?

Data Model & Approach

The analysis uses a relational data model with a member-month enrollment spine to ensure accurate exposure-adjusted metrics. Core tables include member enrollment, medical claims, pharmacy fills, quality measures, and a calendar dimension.

SQL queries are used in the following ways:

  • Align claims and utilization to enrollment periods
  • Calculate per-member-per-month (PMPM) cost metrics
  • Aggregate utilization at the member-year level
  • Apply transparent, rule-based risk stratification logic


The structure emphasizes clarity, reproducibility, and governance, mirroring analytical practices commonly used in healthcare payer environments.

Key Performance Measures

PMPM Medical Cost

Total allowed medical cost divided by enrolled member-months

Emergency Department Utilization

Annual ED visit counts with exposure thresholds

High-Cost Concentration

Identification of top 1% annual medical spenders

Rising Cost Trend

Year-over-year PMPM increases among continuously enrolled members

Care Management Targeting Tier

Unified classification combining cost, utilization, and trend signals

These measures are designed to support operational reporting, care management planning, and leadership.

Example Insights

Using these measures, the analysis highlights

  • A small subset of members driving a large share of total cost
  • Members with frequent ED utilization who may benefit from targeted intervention
  • Emerging risk among members with rapidly increasing PMPM
  • Variation in cost and utilization across service areas

These insights demonstrate how structured analytics can move beyond descriptive reporting to support proactive, targeted decision-making.

Tools & Skills

  • SQL Server (T-SQL; joins, aggregations, window functions)
  • Relational data modeling (star schema, member-month spine)
  • Healthcare payer metrics (PMPM, utilization, risk stratification)
  • Power BI for decision-support visualization

Ethical Use of Data

All data used in this project is fully simulated. The analysis emphasizes

  • Privacy protection
  • Aggregate reporting
  • Transparent, rule-based logic
  • Responsible interpretation of results

Ethical data use is essential when analytics influence healthcare access and resource allocation.

Technical Documentation

The complete SQL implementation, including schema design, analytic views, and risk stratification logic, is available in a public GitHub repository.

Effective program evaluation connects data to decisions and decisions to better outcomes for children and families.

Johnny A. Kenton, PhD

Thank you for reviewing my work.
All models and dashboards are based on simulated data.

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